TAITRA Releases 2026 First-Round Trade Index: Geopolitical Disruption Raises Operating Costs, Firms Accelerate Supply Chain Diversification

TAITRA has released its 2026 first-round trade confidence index, based on 1,678 valid responses. The current export confidence index stands at 36.05, while the six-month outlook index reaches 45.25, remaining below the neutral threshold of 50. The Middle East conflict between the US and Iran was rated as having a negative impact by 56.2% of surveyed firms, while concern over operating cost risks climbed to 77.5%, up from 67.7% in the previous survey. Among affected companies, 85.4% identified cost increases as their core pain point, and 49.9% reported raw material or component shortages. Sector divergence is pronounced: the electronics, ICT and optics industry posts an outlook index of 53.7, while petrochemicals and basic metals record 33.8 and 30.3 respectively. On AI adoption, 42.2% of firms remain at the free chatbot stage, while pioneer AI agent adopters show an outlook index of 59.41 versus 51.84 for paid AI agent users, indicating a strong positive correlation between AI integration depth and export confidence. In response to disruption, 48.7% of firms are opening new markets through the crisis, 34.4% are capturing order diversion, 56.4% are watching the US market, and 52.2% are focusing on Southeast and South Asia.